Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Apartments or Houses for Fredericksburg, TX

As the City of Fredericksburg TX continues to explore solutions to the perceived lack of affordable housing, clear and convincing evidence exists that there is, indeed, a need for this type of product.  All one has to do is look at statistics provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Texas State Demographer, FISD, the Gillespie County MLS and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (among others) to see that prices continue to trend higher while poverty levels are increasing and wages are not keeping pace with inflation (not to mention home prices).

While some may argue that meeting this demand by granting tax-payer funded incentives to private developers is a bad idea, it has been proven time and again that it is the only idea that works. The “do nothing” alternative presents risks to the community in the form of exacerbating the chronic labor shortages faced by local employers and will (by default) encourage more low-income multi-family development.  If people need a roof over their heads, someone will provide it.  The question for our community is what kind of roofs do we want to see and live with.

Multi-family developments are certainly not bad things.  We’ve all lived in an apartment or two (or eight) in our time.  Recognize however that the “business of apartments” has changed dramatically since most of us most likely made that housing choice.  Large-scale apartment communities (50+ units) fall into two categories these days; “subsidized” and “securitized”.  Subsidized units typically involve some kind of government funding and come with “income qualifying” strings attached. Securitized units are “free market” in the sense that they will charge the highest rates possible (and spend the least in maintenance practicable) to achieve the highest returns for their publicly traded REIT’s.

While each type of unit serves its targeted demographic well, they effectively bookend the low and high end of any given market.  What about the “middle”?  Who serves that? Who has the ability to serve that? The answer to that is a whole other post, so I’ll stick to my point.

As in the debate on affordable, single-family housing, apartment developers clearly consider land cost and income demographics in their development equations.  High land prices and the lower the area incomes virtually assure more projects aimed at the lower end of the apartment spectrum (subsidized).  Again, there is nothing wrong with someone meeting an identifiable demand; the question for the community is “how do we want that demand to be met?”

Coming full-circle, the alternative to more taxpayer subsidized multi-family development (yes, local incentives are given to these projects too) is properly incentivized single-family residential development.

“Affordability” can be defined by assessing local income levels, current underwriting criteria and the availability to downpayment assistance programs.  Once defined, affordable mortgage amounts can be deduced resulting in target home prices.  The cost to construct certain types and configuration of dwellings can be assessed and subtracted to identify the resulting market lot price targets.  None of this can be accurately calculated, however, unless and until a clear message is delivered from city officials as to incentive packages that will be granted to projects meeting established criteria.

Is it in the best interest of the community to incentivized development in return for stabilizing the local labor market and/or slowing the spread of taxpayer supported multi-family development? In the special place that is Fredericksburg, TX, I would answer with a resounding YES!

What about those who say “well Jeff, not everyone can afford a house”, or “hey, I had to live in many apartments and save my money for years before I could afford a home”? These are certainly valid statements and are (by the way) very reflective of my own experiences.

These arguments; however, ignore the fact that times have changed.  Home prices and inflation are far outpacing the real growth in wages.  I suspect that many of us who make these arguments couldn’t achieve what we managed to do then, today.

Posted by fbgjeff at 15:37:10 | Permalink | No Comments »

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Foreclosures and Short Sales in Fredericksburg

With the recent state of the national economy, the question of foreclosures in the Hill Country, Fredericksburg, Mason, Llano, etc. often comes up.  Is it a “problem” in our area?  Are there opportunities for investors to pick up “bargains” at foreclosure sales?

While the Fredericksbrurg, TX and Hill Country markets are not immune to the foreclosure phenomenon, we have to a very large degree not been subject to the rash of forced sales more common on the east and west coasts. Have there been foreclosures?  Sure.  Very many?  Not really.

Lenders in our area have tended heavily towards the conservative.  Additionally, Texas home equity lending laws have been a tremendous help in preventing the kind of ridiculous, sub-prime lending you hear so much about in the media today.

If you believe, however, that our economy will continue to suffer through a quarter (or several quarters) of recession, it could benefit you to know the basic of foreclosure law should you (as a property owner) find yourself faced with financial hardship.  Conversely, fortunes have been made by savvy investors who follow foreclosure trends and are able to acquire real property at “discounted” prices.

The nationwide foreclosure boom has focused more attention on a transaction referred to as a “short sale”.  In an attempt to avoid the time-consuming (and often times expensive) foreclosure process, lenders are increasingly agreeing to “short sell” a mortgaged property.

By agreeing to sell the property for less than the current balance owed on the note, a lender “comes up short” on recovering the full amount.  The “short” part of the term also applies to the timeline generally associated with the process as these attempts are often limited to an amount of days roughly equivalent to the time it take to process a “regular” foreclosure. A “short sale” can be a win-win for the property owner and the lender. ‘Short sale” properties are often listed with realtors and heavily promoted.

Are “short sales” common in Fredericksburg and/or the Hill Country?  Not as common as in the major metropolitan areas, but they do occur.  It is my opinion that this process will become increasingly more frequent as our market corrects and lenders and borrowers opt to try an avoid foreclosures.

Posted by fbgjeff at 20:03:48 | Permalink | No Comments »

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

The Debate Continues

The debate on affordable housing in Fredericksburg, TX took two steps forward and a half steps back at last weeks Planning & Zoning hearing.  On the agenda were proposed changes to several existing zoning ordinance classifications, the creation of a new one and the re-zoning of a neighbor to allow for small lots and more density.

Having apparently received enough critical feedback from neighbors duly notified of the impending discussions, P&Z wisely opted to separate the discussion on the zoning classification changes/creation and the re-zoning of the neighborhood for fear that, if considered as a package, the issue would go down in total defeat.

Their plan worked in that some significant changes to existing rules were amended and a new classification (R-1A) was approved by P&Z.  These proposed changes/additions now move to the 12/1 City Council agenda for review, discussion and a vote.

The proposed re-zoning of the Walch Terrace neighborhood was roundly criticized by those potentially affected.  Clearly seeing the writing on the wall, P&Z requested that city staff withdraw this proposal which, of course, they did.  Score one for the neighborhood!

This agenda was devised by city staff, P&Z and (to some degree) City Council at the behest of the Affordable Housing Task Force as a means of taking a critical first step towards removing various regulations from the path of affordable development.  The goal of these changes was to encourage “infill” housing into existing neighborhoods by encouraging lot division and increased building coverage.

While it is my personal opinion that these measures will make little difference in “available dirt” becoming more “affordable”, they do stand to increase density in the city core and perhaps minimally affect “suburbanization”. 

These steps are progress in the long road to achieving the stated aim of these various committees, task forces, council’s, etc. (to allow for more “affordable housing”).  Each public official and task force member should be congratulated on the partial success of this effort.  More has been accomplished in the last several months than has in the last dozen years.

More steps are needed, however, and it is my hope that collective wisdom involved in the process are not disheartened by the one “defeat” resultant from this meeting.  It was a bad idea, poorly executed.  You did the right thing by pulling it.  Take your licks and keep on movin’.

Unless and until we define what “affordable” means to our community and realistically assess the true demand for this product, I don’t see how we can craft future incentive packages to encourage real progress.  Unless and until we are ready to recognize that the  “waiver” of a fee not currently being collected cannot logically be termed as a “giveaway” and unless and until we realize that the potential expansion of the tax base far outweighs any incentives granted, unless and until we acknowledge that “affordability” does not end with the purchase price (but rather includes maintenance, sustainability, efficiency, utilities, taxes, etc.) how can we make further progress?

Posted by fbgjeff at 22:43:53 | Permalink | No Comments »